Job Market Paper
When Innovation Outpaces Policy: Hyperscale Data Centers and the Fiscal Costs of Investment Incentives
Abstract
Governments increasingly use investment incentives to attract large capital-intensive projects, but the local returns to these policies remain uncertain. I study state tax incentives for data centers, an industry that has expanded rapidly as advances in cloud computing and artificial intelligence have increased the scale and resource intensity of computing infrastructure. Exploiting the staggered adoption of state data-center tax incentives and within-state variation in counties' proximity to large water bodies, I examine how subsidized data-center investment affects local public finances, employment, and resource markets. Following incentive adoption, exposed counties experience increases in government revenues and expenditures, alongside greater debt issuance. At the same time, the expansion of data centers places pressure on local inputs, including land and electricity. Employment effects are weaker and can become negative in the most exposed areas, consistent with the possibility that resource-intensive investment creates displacement alongside direct economic activity. The results highlight how technological change can alter the local costs and benefits of place-based investment incentives after those policies have already been designed.
Draft available upon request.